The first casualty of war is (still) truth

I would like to offer my thoughts on the ephemeral nature of truth in wartime.

by Ian MacVicar, CD, DSS

Truth and/or Consequences

The manipulation of the truth to hide one’s losses, to inflate one’s strength, to intimidate the enemy, and to reinforce military and civilian morale has long been a part of warfare. Deception is hiding your true strength and intentions from the enemy. Propaganda aims to demonize the enemy and to lionize the friendly forces. Disinformation is the deliberate manipulation or fabrication of information to intentionally mislead the reader or viewer. Both are integral parts of what is known as information operations, which are actions taken to influence adversarial information and information systems while defending one's own information and information systems. Evidence of such ruses were apparent in the ongoing Russian invasion of Ukraine before the first shot was fired – and continue to be on display daily.

The battle of Snake Island

The deliberate manipulation of fact was on display – on both sides – following the naval Russian naval attack on a small Ukrainian island in the Black Sea, Zmiinyi (trans. Snake) Island, on Thursday 24 February 2022. A Russian warship approached the 42-acre island to propose that the Ukrainian Border Guards surrender. The Russian offer was rebuffed in rather salty language, leading to the Russian bombardment of the island by the cruiser Moskva and the patrol boat Vasily Bykov. Radio contact with the Ukrainian troops was lost and all 13 Border Guards were presumed dead.

Ukrainian Ambassador Oksana Markarova confirmed all 13 of the defenders were killed during the fighting during a briefing in Washington, D.C. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelinsky told the Ukrainian people that “On our Zmiinyi Island, defending it to the last, all the border guards died heroically, but [they] did not give up.” All 13 were posthumously awarded the Hero of Ukraine medal.

Initial Russian reports stated that they took the surrender of 82 Ukrainian soldiers. On Saturday 26 February 2022, the State Border Guard Service of Ukraine (SBGSU) issued a statement declaring,

We [have a] strong belief that all Ukrainian defenders of Zmiinyi (Snake) Island

may be alive. Preliminary information that border guards may be dead came

before the defenders lost contact. We sincerely hope that the boys will return

home as soon as possible. Glory to Ukrainian defenders!

According to Russian Ministry of Defence spokesman Igor Konashenkov, 82 prisoners of war were taken after their voluntary surrender, and that the prisoners have been signing pledges promising not to continue military action against Russia and will be released soon.

The only truly verified fact is the TikTok video recorded by one of the Border guards as the Russians warships opened fire. Apparently it is true that the official Ukrainian response was “Russian warship – go f**k yourself.” A recording of the exchange was first published on the website of the Ukrainian news outlet Ukrayinska Pravda (trans. Ukrainian Truth) and quickly spread through social media, eventually picked up by news organizations worldwide. Ukrainian and U.S. defense officials confirmed its authenticity to NPR's Tom Bowman. Late Saturday afternoon 26 February, Russian authorities released footage of Ukrainian troops boarding a bus. Russian media also reported that the Ukrainian servicemen on the island had been sent to Sevastopol in Crimea, according to the statement Russia released. However, the authenticity of the information is still uncertain.

Fog of War?

The confused statements may be hopeful misinformation from either side, deliberate disinformation, or even just the simple fog of war that makes truthful reporting a challenge. There are numerous independent fact checkers which can be counted on to identify bias and misrepresentation of fact. These include: 1) https://www.snopes.com/, 2) https://www.politifact.com/, 3) https://www.propublica.org/, 4) https://www.factcheck.org/. Most long-established news services, such as https://www.bbc.com/news/reality_check, https://mediabiasfactcheck.comafp-agence-france-presse/, and https://www.reuters.com/fact-check have retained their credibility in the Digital Age.

Netherlands-based https://bellingcat.com, established in July 2014, has become a well-reputed fact checking agency for fact-checkers, with a recognized slight to moderate bias to the left of the political spectrum. Although they describe their role as “investigative journalism, bellingcat.com has become respected source of corroborated OSINT.

The (perpetual) Bodyguard?

British Prime Minister Winston Churchill is reputed to have told master of maskirovka Josef Stalin at the Tehran Conference during Churchill’s birthday party on 30 November 1943, “In wartime the truth is so precious that she must always be attended by a Bodyguard of Lies.”

It appears that this is still the case in 2022.